July 2011 Archives

If forecasts for feeding the world are even half correct, farmers in Western Canada will be growing wheat and canola not only on every acre, but in their bathtubs just to try and meet global demand.

You hear these figures on where world population is headed over the next 40 years and for me it is always staggering. It is generally good news for agriculture, but at the same time the big question is “can the world do it?”

Dr. Robert Thompson, a retired professor from the University of Illinois, former vice president of the World Bank

 and just one of those learned guys who probably forgot more about agriculture and agriculture policy before breakfast than I’ll ever know, gave an interesting talk on the outlook for agriculture at the Canola Council of Canada annual conference in Saskatoon this week.

Thompson (pictured right) says it is a good news scenario that the demand for agricultural commodities and food will increase dramatically over the next 40 years, but adds there will also be significant challenges to feed the world. The crux of the issue — the world population will increase by 2.6 billion over the next 40 years, world food demand will increase by 50 per cent, but there is only 12 per cent of the world land area that has potential for development for new crop production.

Here are some of his figures:

- The world population stands at about 6.8 billion people today and that is expected to increase by 2.6 billion by 2050. China currently has a population of 1.3 billion people, so the increase will represent the world feeding two more Chinas than there is today.

-       Out of the roughly seven billion people in the world today, 1.4 billion live on less than $1.25 per day. And 925 million live at a level where they cannot afford the basic human food requirement of 1800 calories/ day.

-       Another 2.6 billion people live on less than $2 per day, which is enough to sustain life, but gives them not much more.

-       A person needs to be living on about $10 per day before they are able to meet basic food requirements and afford some of the extras.

-       Once a population moves into that $10 per day/per capita range that is the income range that places a greater demand on agricultural commodities. They can afford to buy more.

-       Right now about 15 per cent of China lives on less than $1 per day, and about 33 per cent live on less than $2.

-       In India 40 per cent of the country lives on less than $1 per day, and 75 per cent of the population on less than $2.

-       Thompson says as the economies of developing countries improve, India may have the greater demand for agricultural commodities than China.

-       50 per cent of the world population now lives in cities, and by 2050 that is expected to reach 70 per cent.

-       There will a 50 per cent increase in food demand in the first half of this century as the population grows from seven to nine billion people.

-       Looking at arable land, only about 12 per cent of the world land base can still be developed for agricultural production, without running into some significant environmental problems. Most of this undeveloped land is in South America and in the sub-Sahara region of Africa (countries along the southeast side of the continent). These are difficult soils but can be productive with the proper management and inputs.

-       About 70 per cent of the fresh water on the planet today is used for agriculture, but as more people move into cities, (70 per cent by 2050) there will be greater demand for water in urban centres and less available for agriculture.

-       In many low income or developing countries 25 per cent of agricultural commodities are lost or spoiled in the time between harvest and when they can reach consumers.

These circumstances along the impact of climate change, he says will place significant pressure on agricultural producing countries to not only produce more food, but to produce it more efficiently. The food demand will increase by 50 per cent, but there isn’t 50 per cent more land or water to support it.  There will be increasing pressure on biotechnology to produce higher yielding crops that are drought tolerant, disease resistant, with higher nutritional value, and more adaptable to a wider range of adverse conditions.

There will need to be a greater investment in both public and private agricultural research and development to bring about these efficiencies and essentially produce more from the same, or in some cases, less resources.

Lee Hart is a field editor for Grainews in Calgary, Contact him at 403-592-1964 or by email at lee@fbcpublishing.com

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Even though Dow AgroSciences (DAS) gave me a pen, and a ham sandwich for lunch and there is a promise of a new ball cap at some point, I haven’t let any of that largess influence my message to readers.

The word simply is — grow plenty of Nexera canola and make money.

That was one of the messages gleaned during a two-day field trip earlier this week in and near Saskatoon, as DAS showcased to leading Western Canada ag journalists its canola and crop protection product research. (This was the cream of the crop of ag writers, so to speak — okay, admittedly a couple of them were curdled, but nice people just the same.)  

The key messages for growers – there is a demand for Nexera canola, premiums are being offered, and contracts will be available in September. While DAS has encouraged growers to seed 20 to 30 per cent of their canola acres to Nexera in the past, they are urging farmers to seed everything in 2012 to this premium, identity preserved canola, that produces a specialty oil being used by restaurants and food processors across North America. (Top photo, Sarah Freeman and Mark Woloshyn discuss the new hybrids)

And don’t be spooked by the performance of some of the early Nexera open pollinated varieties released over the last 10 years. Some of those OPs are very good and some were weak, certainly by today’s standards. But the company canola breeding program has come a long way baby. Their new hybrid canola varieties — both Roundup Ready and Clearfield — are among some of the top yielders you’ll find in Western Canada. And after looking at the research and field trial plots at one nursery site near Pike Lake just outside Saskatoon, there is plenty more in the pipeline.

I have been around this block for a lot of years and know everyone says they have “the best”. There are marketing guys who will put a good spin on a three-legged racehorse because it will save you 25 percent on shoeing costs….so you have to pay attention.

But it is always good to listen to the plant breeders and senior agronomists who are sincere and committed to what they are doing. They are looking for the best genetics, that not only include this Omega 9 gene that gives Nexera its unique characteristics, but the full package which is high yield, good agronomics —good seedling vigor, good disease resistance, standability, early maturity — the whole enchilada.

They’re philosophy is like the old Zenith television commercials that claimed “the quality goes in before the name goes on”. I don’t sense they are trying to sell a bill of goods. The aren’t peddling “me to” varieties. If these aren’t top performers, compared to their own varieties as well as other leading canola hybrid varieties, they aren’t going to dink around with them.(Centre photo, breeder Van Ripley describes part of the plant selection process.)

Saskatoon is the global headquarters for DAS canola breeding program. Plant breeder Van Ripley is leader of the program, Greg Gingera is a research scientist and Sarah Freeman is senior agronomist, field program and registration manager. They are just part of the team that goes through the tedious and painstaking process to screen literally tens of thousands of potential lines to find something that is measurably better than what’s already registered.

At the Pike Lake research farm, for example, they have 160 acres in 40-acre blocks. On one 40-acre block they have plots of their newest registered hybrids and leading varieties being considered for registration. On the same block they also have 20,000 potential lines they will evaluate and from that perhaps 10 years from now they may have one or two that will qualify for registration. And they do that every year. So these aren’t people who simply say it’s green with a yellow flower, that’s good enough. 

And while the breeding effort is underway, Mark Woloshyn, Nexera Canola brand manager and Tyler Groeneveld, the Omega-9 market manager are working with Western Canada based canola marketers such as Louis Dreyfus, Bunge, Richardson International, Viterra and ADM, first on the canola production contract side and also with an ever-growing list of food service and food processing companies, all in an effort to get more Nexera canola oil into deep fryers and food manufacturing. (Bottom photo: Mark Woloshyn describes yield potential of Nexera varieties).

Companies are always a bit tight with figures on how many acres they contract and how much oil they need, but bottom line there is a demand for Nexera oil and contracts offering premium prices will be available this fall. Woloshyn doesn’t really expect every farmer to grow 100 per cent Nexera varieties, there are dozens of good varieties on the market, but he points to information on their website, www.healthierprofits.com which shows growers are making money with Nexera.  

And if you can get these guys to throw a ball cap into the deal you’ll not only be rich, but look good too.

Lee Hart is a field editor for Grainews in Calgary, Contact him at 403-592-1964 or by email at lee@fbcpublishing.com

Okay, so what is wrong with this picture?  Eighteen people and three dogs show up for a gruelling hike into the BC wilderness and then 40 people show up for the evening summer yard party that followed. I am sensing a lack of commitment here. 

Actually, there was really total commitment by all relatives and friends who gathered this past weekend for a celebratory hike and dinner to officially get Bryce Bostock of Cranbrook, BC off our sympathy list. 

The young man, who took a spill from an ATV last September and suffered a serious head injury, which landed him in hospital and rehab for a couple months, is healed. He took it easy for a few months, but he now looks to be 110 per cent.  He is back to being normal, whatever that is. If anything over these past few months he has grown taller and stronger, which now may tax the footwear industry to come up with a Size 16 boot. The kid may be going to school in snowshoes this fall. (But let’s face it, the Calgary Tower isn’t supported by toothpicks, is it?)

All joking aside, really it was a celebration for both Bryce and his best friend/cousin Josh Anderson who both appear to have come through this ordeal with good health and perhaps a bit more wisdom about life. Josh wasn’t seriously hurt in the mishap, but he had presence of mind in the panicky moments following the roll over of the two-seater ATV to take life-saving action to grab Bryce and keep his head above the cold river water, and radio for help. It was/is a lot of stress for anyone to handle. (Top photo, Bryce, left and Josh and mystery admirer on hike.)

As bad as it was, the whole situation could so easily have turned out so much worse. But there we all were, last weekend, 10 months later celebrating the fact these two young men — a couple of giggly Chatty Cathys — are very much alive and well and getting on with their lives. (The joke there is they are both very quiet and serious guys, at least around old people). (Middle Photo, I think we were the first group of white people to find this wilderness location.)

Since both men really love the outdoors, Aunt Sherry Mackie thought a hike into the BC backcountry, really not all that far from where the accident happened, would be a fitting tribute to their survival and recovery. And that was followed by an evening beef-on-a-bun feast at her Six Mile Crossing estate, with a great buffet supplied by cousins, aunts and grandmas. The 18 people who really love and care about Bryce and Josh made the hike into Lemon Lake in the Bull River Region, and the remaining family and friends who came for dinner later, well I think most of them just heard there would be cake. (Bottom photo, even the dogs needed help in some spots, which made me feel much better.)

It was a good day. It was a celebration of life in the most positive sense.

And now that that is over, Bryce a master potato gun maker, can get on with the more important work of completing the potato gun he is building for me. I think he just has to install the nuclear reactor. Many people have asked me “what are you going to do with it?” . Well, along with impressing people at parties, and perhaps doing the odd half-time show at CFL football games and cattle auctions, I know that fall is fast approaching and the limited-entry Potato Gun hunting season will be upon us before we know it. I want to be ready. I can't wait to nail a bull elk in the rump with a Russett-Burbank. 

Lee Hart is a field editor for Grainews in Calgary, Contact him at 403-592-1964 or by email at lee@fbcpublishing.com

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I don’t know if this is happening to anyone else, but as I seem to be traveling more now with a 60ish-age crowd, even on holidays, the conversation inevitability steers around to either grandchildren or pension plans.

And since I have neither on the go in my life at the moment it is sometimes a struggle to stay with the conversation. I can’t wait until the pendulum swings to two of my favorite topics — sports cars (like the new Chevy Malibu) or hot chicks (like Shelia Fraser, the auditor general)….now we are talking.

Being on holidays this week in Radium, B.C. — not that agricultural journalists ever really take a holiday, you are always doing research on something — I am restocking the old mental reference library. It is only Wednesday and I have less than one gigabyte of memory space left. Anything that happens tomorrow could just be lost forever (that happened a week ago Tuesday, I lost a whole day, so I know the risk is real).

I thought I should jot down a few observations in case the old “hard drive” is wiped clean. We are camping with three other couples, all long-time friends who have known each other for more than 30 years. We have worked together, camped together and raised a total of eight children together, and now with a collective age of about 485 years we get together at least once a year to share our experience and insights into an ever-increasing range of topics. The group includes the Vandenbergs of Cranbrook, the Gibbards of Kimberley and the Cookes of Lethbridge.

Here are a few key points from this trip:

• Grandchildren Ella, Aden and Abby are just amazing, and pretty well every move they make is either incredible or hilarious. (I have to take the grandparents’ word on that). Apparently the really special feature of grandchildren is you can enjoy them when they are cute and good, and hand them back if they get fussy or troublesome. I like that.
• Apparently as you approach 60 a pension plan is a good thing. (I should start thinking about that). Government pensions do not treat old people well or fairly. Get your teeth fixed and eyes checked before you retire because it gets too expensive afterwards.
• While crops are growing and cattle are grazing, Alberta and Saskatchewan farmers come to Radium (or at least the Columbia Valley). There appears to be several sitting in the shade next to their RVs reading up on tax shelters.
• The Edgewater Hilltop Par 3 Golf Course is beautiful, but only for experienced golfers, or at least those still agile enough to climb over the rail fence on the fourth and fifth holes to find balls that may have gone out of bounds into the hay field. I saw some poor buggers doing that. The steep hill between the eighth and ninth holes is a real bear, but unavoidable, unless you are lucky enough to die on the eighth hole.
• Never mind golf at the Edgewater Hilltop Par 3 Golf Course just go there for the great lunch and excellent homemade pies (six kinds). Try not to go there with a bunch of health conscience old people who get full too fast or like “to eat in moderation”. It is no fun, and almost (I said ALMOST) makes you think twice about having pie.
• There is a great and interesting selection of honey and honey products at the Jubilee Mountain Apiary/Beeland store in the Spillimacheen Trading Post about 25 kms north of Radium on Highway 95. Morley Winnick says it has been a bad year for honey bees, mites are a consistent problem, and with the late spring the bees nearly starved to death because mountain alpine flowers and valley alfalfa fields were slow to bloom. The nectar is now flowing, and there will be honey this year.
• Next door to the honey store, four entrepreneurial women – Donna Ford, Nola Art, Shirley Griese and Sharon Jamieson have opened the Spilli Bean coffee shop and restaurant in the old forest service ranger station. Great place for coffee, lunches and special dinners during the week. And a great view overlooking the Columbia River. I canoed that stretch about 40 years ago as part of a month-long trek from the source of the Columbia into Washington State.
• And the Windermere Valley Golf Course, which used to be part of a ranch owned by the Zehnders is a great place to spend the afternoon too. Not that food is more important than golf, but they also have a nice restaurant at the club house.
• And further south on Highway 95, another long time rancher, Bud Coy, near Canal Flats has an excellent little par 3 golf course on one of the former pastures. You walk through the corrals between the first and second hole. I wish he had hacked down a few more trees in a couple places, my aim ain’t that good. But Thursday is a golf and ribs night, so we may be all over that.
• Another problem camping with old, retired people they are not socially connected and either do not own or do not carry cell phones. They just don’t get modern, contemporary, happening people who like to sit around the campfire with iphones and Blackberries. It’s like they don’t care what the world is doing.

 A third topic old retired people like to talk about, which unfortunately I am able to relate to more and more is “things that hurt when you move” or “parts that no longer work as well, or at all”. Speaking of which, I best get my parts moving for the day as best I can. Since we ate the donuts around the campfire last night, I will have to find some other form of morning sustenance.

Lee Hart is a field editor for Grainews in Calgary, Contact him at 403-592-1964 or by email at lee@fbcpublishing.com

I am not sure what the point of the recently announced Canadian Wheat Board’s own, non-binding plebiscite on the question of an open market will prove, other than it might allow some people to go to bed at night saying “see, I told you so.”

There is a good chance, as this vote is tallied, that 50 per cent plus, of permit book holders may support the CWB monopoly for marketing wheat and export barley.

However, the federal Conservative government has the authority and obviously the will to remove the Canadian Wheat Board monopoly and I don’t see Minister Ritz “blinking” over the process that has already been started.

Some might view my comments as being anti-Canadian Wheat Board and they are not. I have no grudge with the CWB, what so ever. Never sold them a bushel of wheat and never will.

I think people can argue the economics of monopoly vs. open market six ways from Sunday, but in the end it comes down to a philosophical decision — do you want someone marketing your grain, or not.

I am not anti-Canadian Wheat Board. Many good producers I know prefer dealing with the CWB. At the same time, I do support or understand the rights and interests of those producers who do want complete marketing choice. And why not? We are talking about wheat here, for god’s sake. If you plant the seed it comes out of the ground just like dozens of other agricultural commodities.

Western Canadian farmers apparently needed help marketing grain 75 years ago, things have changed, and now a good percentage of producers are saying “thanks, we can do it ourselves, now.” I have heard many stories over the years of adult farmers, sometimes frustrated, because they couldn’t make changes in their farming or business practices until dad retired or died. Is there some similarity here?

And I do believe in democracy too. One man, one vote – or in this case one permit book, one vote, but I am not smart enough to properly define the difference where that “democracy” fails in this situation. Everyone’s vote counts, yes. But, in an extreme example, if I have one producer like Larry Ruud and One Earth Farms and he’s seeding 150,000 acres of wheat this year, he may have one permit book. With a 40 bushel yield his business could produce six million bushels of wheat. Somewhere in my logic he should have just as much (and perhaps more) say in how his crop is marketed than a guy down the road growing 1,000 acres of wheat producing 40,000 bushels.

Both these producers should be left to market their crops whichever way they see fit, but regardless of size disparity, one doesn’t have the right to tell the other what to do.

Here are a couple more comments I received from readers on the CWB issue:

Vicki from Saskatchewan writes: "I no longer care about the arguments, I simply want my freedom."

And here is an email I received from CWB District 2 director Jeff Nielsen who farms at Olds, Alberta. He was in Regina recently for the Farm Progress Show and was among those CWB staff and directors working at the CWB booth. He is commenting on my June 21 blog “the tribe has spoken”.

 Jeff writes: 

“ Great blog on the current CWB “why bother” fiasco, I was at the breakfast in Regina, unaware of our petition, and not completely surprised with Allen’s (Oberg) comments, yet the audience was packed with opposition party members, both federal and provincial, and of course the NFU, CWCA, FCWB. He spoke his heart and personal convictions to the crowd and they loved it.

I worked the booth at the show for  a few hours, found that interesting, had some good debates with a few, and was called names by some and some great conversations with others on why not move forward.

We do, I believe, have that ability, and we have or perhaps had the upper hand with government in designing the new entity, yet that ability to be the layers of a new foundation perhaps is quickly eroding.

Thanks again for the article.”

Lee Hart is a field editor for Grainews in Calgary, Contact him at 403-592-1964 or by email at lee@fbcpublishing.com

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