Staying ahead of the elephant

The Canadian agriculture industry, from producers through to processors and food retailers, needs to be operating at least one step ahead of consumers, says an expert on North American consumer trends.

Phil Lempert, also known as the Supermarket Guru, speaking to the Canola Council of Canada in Toronto this week, says the agriculture and food industry has to anticipate consumer needs and provide the type of products and services consumers will be demanding over the next five, 15, or 30 years.

While he was talking to canola producers, marketers and processors the message applied to all those involved in primary agriculture through to the food retailer level.

While more details of his talk will be carried in an upcoming issue Grainews, here are a few of his key points.

• Healthy food products will become even more important to Baby Boomer consumers
• Major grocery chain stores will get considerable smaller (about 10,000 square feet vs. 60,000 or 70,000 square feet)
• Personal electronic devices such as cell phones and other scanners, will make it possible for consumers to scan bar codes on products, and learn about production practices, compare product prices between stores, and where applicable even be able to see a photo of the farmer who produced the particular product.
• Consumers will be more interested in bargains.
• More will shop with coupons
• An aging population will be more conscious of spending and eat out less and eat home more.  Fast food restaurants will likely be relatively secure, but mid-price range restaurants will be at risk.

Looking ahead to trends in 2050, Lempert says the world will need twice the food, but it will be produced on half the land base, and both air and water will be considerably dirtier. It will important for agriculture to dramatically reduce its environmental footprint. The industry will also need to respond to climate change.

And he says all farmers will have to make money from farming. The economy cannot be such that producers will have to say they sold land for urban development just to survive.