CWRS wheat protein lower for 2009

In southwest Manitoba, my brother combined better-than-average hard red spring wheat crops but his average protein is 12 to 13 per cent, which is lower than he usually gets.

Maureen Fitzhenry, spokesperson for the Canadian Wheat Board, says average protein levels are down, except in Alberta. "Alberta's protein levels — particularly in north and north central areas — have been very good," Fitzhenry says. "I was at a farm near Killam where the guy was harvesting 15.5 per cent and there are reports from the Peace of 17 per cent." This is often the result in dry conditions when yields are lower.

The Canadian Grain Commission's average protein results for CWRS No.1 as of October 1 are 13.6 per cent for Manitoba, Alberta and Northeast B.C., and 12.7 per cent for Saskatchewan. The averages for all CWRS grades are 13.5 for Manitoba, 12.6 for Saskatchewan and 13.6 for Alberta and Northeast B.C. The overall Prairie average is 13.2 per cent for CWRS, all grades. That compares to 13.4 per cent in 2008, 14.1 per cent in 2007 and 13.4 per cent in 2006.

         Remi Gosselin, manager of corporate information services for the Grain Commission, notes that the number of samples received to date are about half of normal. He says the low protein average for Saskatchewan — at one full percentage point lower than normal — is "speculative" until more samples come in.

Why the drop?

Bruce Burnett, director of weather and market analysis with the CWB, says you'll often see an inverse relationship between yield and protein. Higher yield, lower protein, and vice versa. But he says other factors will play a role. He thinks that after good yields in 2008, a lot of nitrogen reserves in the soil were lower heading into 2009. And if growers cut their nitrogen rates, which many did, the crop runs short of nitrogen at a time when it needs nitrogen to build seed protein.

Burnett says that in eastern Manitoba, high rainfall probably leeched more nitrogen out of the soil, which further reduced nitrogen available to the crop at the time of seed protein set.

Higher premiums for high protein

Fitzhenry says high-protein from North America will be in short supply, particularly since protein levels in the Dakotas are quite low, particularly in the Red River Valley.

"There is expected to be a higher protein premium," she says. The September pool return outlook (PRO) reflects this. In September, the forecast price for top protein No.1 CWRS increased to $263 per tonne, up from $260 in the August PRO, while prices for  all other wheat grades and protein levels decreased. No.1 CWRS with 12.5 per cent protein is at $231, down $5 per tonne from August, and No.1 CWRS with 11.5 per cent protein is at $219, down $7 from August.

—Thanks to Scott Day of MAFRI for the photo.