High-quality milling wheat to be short

       Based on the current situation in Western Canada, the U.S. and around the world, the global supply of milling quality wheat will be "tight," says Bruce Burnett, the Canadian Wheat Board's director of weather and market analysis.

       Burnett presented his outlook today. To see the complete summary, click here. The board will also have the webcast available at www.cwb.ca.

Here are a few highlights:

—Manitoba has been excessively wet, delaying seeding. Alberta and western Saskatchewan have been cold and dry, greatly reducing the yield potential. And while frosts have hit hard and often this spring, each day of delay increases the risk of frost crippling the late crop this fall. Crops are, on average, 10 days to two weeks behind.

—Here's a summary from the CWB news release: The CWB projects "a western Canadian wheat, durum and barley crop of 29.7 million tonnes in the 2009 crop year, down almost 20 per cent from last year's 36.7 million tonnes and significantly below the five-year average of 33.9 million tonnes. The all-wheat yield estimate announced by the CWB today, at 33.4 bushels per acre, is the lowest initial projection in seven years."

—"World wheat crop will be down significantly from last year's record production of 682 million tonnes, particularly given a substantial drop in production in key U.S. winter wheat growing areas," the CWB release says. In his presentation, Burnett quoted USDA figures that estimate a drop of 26 million tonnes, putting global wheat production at 656 million tonnes. Australia looks to rebound after a few years of terrible drought, with good rains earlier in their growing season. Argentina, on the other hand, is having its own drought, so the improvement in Australia's wheat production outlook is balanced with a drop in Argentina's. Milling wheat areas in the Northern U.S. face the same soggy conditions as Manitoba.