Machinery sales outlook flat for 2009

     The Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) released its annual forecast for U.S. and Canadian agricultural machinery sales. The 2009 forecast, which is based on a survey that asked agricultural machinery manufacturers for their sales predictions, calls for basically no increase in sales for big tractors and combines in Canada compared to 2008. Combine sales are forecast to rise one per cent, 2WD tractors over 100 hp will rise 0.3 per cent, and 4WD sales will have no increase at all.

U.S. sales forecasts are considerably more buoyant, with sales predicted to rise 4.4 per cent for 4WD tractors, 3.3 per cent for 2WD tractors over 100 hp, and 9.3 per cent for combines.

Why the difference? Because 60 per cent of U.S. manufacturers polled expect seeded acres and exports to rise in the U.S. for 2009 versus 2008. Yet in Canada, only 34 per cent expect seeded acres to go up and 43 per cent expect a rise in exports.

Manufacturers were also asked for their thoughts on credit availability and interest rates for 2009. Canadian manufacturers had slightly better outlooks for buyers. As for credit availability, 79 per cent forecast no change, while 13 per cent forecast modest decreases. For interest rates, 58 per cent expect them to stay the same, while 33 per cent expect modest increases.

In the U.S., 50 per cent expect credit availability to stay the same, while 34 per cent expect it to decline. And 52 per cent expect interest rates to stay the same, while 35 per cent expect them to rise slightly.

I’ve attached the whole report here:AEM machinery sales outlook for 2009.doc